Nov. 2 is the day we find out about the interest rate hike, and depending on where one is in the world, it could be the middle of the day, morning, or yesterday. The market has priced in a 75 basis point hike, which is the most likely scenario. However, speculation is rife that Joe Biden is putting pressure on the Fed to ease interest rates, and the Fed may ease interest rates, which would affect the market; after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s stance on the overall economy will dictate whether the market goes up or down. On the crypto side, Connor predicts a bearish market cycle, echoing the 2018 cycle, where a higher high was reached, followed by complacency and Euphoria, before heading down.
The Interest Rate Hike
Ah, guys, the big day is officially upon us! Today’s the day we find out about the interest rate hike. Depending on where you are in the world, it’s the middle of the day here, maybe it’s the morning for you, maybe it’s yesterday for you, maybe you’re in the past and you’re like, “Oh no, I’m in the box!” But today, November 2nd, we find out about the interest rate hikes and what is it going to do to the market.
The market has priced in a 75 basis point hike at this point and everyone expects that to happen. I think that is the most likely thing that is going to happen, and because the market has already priced this in, if we actually get that, it’s not necessarily bad news, which could mean that we could continue this move upwards.
Now, of course, if we do get 100 basis points, which I think is very unlikely, that’s going to be catastrophic for the market, and if we get 50 basis points, which I also think is completely unlikely, that’s going to be huge for the market.
Speculation and Fed Chair Jerome Powell
There is speculation that Joe Biden is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease the interest rates. We also have speculation that the Federal Reserve themselves are going to be easing interest rates, but what is key is after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will come out and talk to the market. When he answers his questions and comes across as bullish for the market and bullish for the overall economy, then this could again send the market up. Now, if he doesn’t and he sounds like they’re stuck for the next six months to a year, then I’m afraid it’s still going to be bad news.
Dogecoin and Crypto
We’re going to discuss what I think, we’re going to talk about Dogecoin and everything that you need to know to be fully up to date in today’s crazy world of crypto.
The Wall Street Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle
Here’s some interesting information about the psychology of a market cycle. On the way up, we have hope, optimism, belief, thrill, and euphoria. Right here was hope, then we moved into some optimism, belief. I’m interested to know what you guys think, but I think that this top here is actually complacency. We have Euphoria, complacency, complacency, euphoria. However, I think that this time round, we simply happen to make a higher high here in the complacency phase, so everyone thought that the market was still going higher when, in fact, euphoria had already happened at this stage.
Bitcoin Market Cycle
If this is playing out pretty much to a T, we’ll probably have a little bit more of a pump here. You can see up to around these regions that we’re actually pointing out here for this double bottom, which would be very nice around that thirty thousand dollar mark. People again will think we’re going into another bull market, it will, in fact, be a bull trap. People will get too leveraged again up here in the opposite direction to what they’re in right now. Right now, most people are short, that’s why we’re pushing upwards. Most people will come to the party late, these are retail traders getting long again up here, and then we push back down for another event moving us into depression right now. This depression here is slightly lower than the capitulation and the anger.
Here on the shorter timescale, we’ve got the four-hour chart. We had this double top play out that exactly what we were talking about on the channel. We had a little bit of a pullback, and now we are consolidating a little bit here in between twenty thousand three and twenty thousand four, which is a nice area. If we do drop below the twenty thousand dollar region, of course, we can start to trend downwards.
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