The content discusses Tyler aka Chico, a YouTuber who covers cryptocurrency, and his analysis of Bitcoin’s price cycles. He compares the current cycle to the one in 2013, highlighting similarities in terms of mid-cycle crashes and price fluctuations. He predicts that Bitcoin is about to go on another parabolic run, similar to what happened in 2013. The content also mentions the S2F model by PlanB, which predicts Bitcoin’s price reaching $63k in October, and other technical indicators such as the pi cycle top indicator. Overall, the content emphasizes the potential for a bullish trend in Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.
Introducing Chico Crypto and Tyler Analysis
Hey yo! How’s it going with the best army in all of cryptocurrency land, who I like to call the Chico Army!! You should know my name but if not, it Tyler aka Chico aka the most based youtuber who covers cryptocurrency & today I’m excited to bring that hopium for Bitcoin, because We are doing an episode of TA, not technical analysis but Tyler analysis…so are you ready?
Rethinking Technical Analysis
You also should know our drill…because it’s time for Chico Crypto! Technical Analysis….for most people, especially youtubers in the space. This consists of drawing a ton of lines on the screen which fits the narrative they are Trying to portray. There are so many different indicators out there, that eventually you will find a line that fits your narrative. Which can only consist of three things. The price will pump, the price will dump, or the price is going to bounce around and go sideways.
Now I’m not necessarily hating on technical analysts, there are some good ones out there… But you should really have a wholesome view of the crypto markets. Have a technical person you follow, have a fundamental person you follow, and have a Tyler person you follow, because Tyler Analysis…is some of the best in the game!
The Cycles and Similarities of Bitcoin
So what exactly is Tyler Analysis? Well Bitcoin is based on cycles due to something called the halving, where the supply of Bitcoin emitted to miners is cut in half every 4 years. We have had 3 halvings, every 4 years since bitcoin has been created so far. From 50 BTC per block, to 25, to 12.5, to as of today, just 6.25 BTC per block. The scarcity of Bitcoin becomes very apparent due to this supply cut and shock to the market That kicks off a price discovery cycle.” So Bitcoin cycles usually last around 4 years….3 supply cuts, equals three 4 year cycles. 2 of those have already happened and we are currently in the midst of our third one! Under halfway there, with an estimated 947 days, until we reach the next halving around May 9th of 2024.
Now each of these cycles have been different, not exactly the same… but all share similarities…but this cycle is sharing similarities most like the 2013 cycle! The biggest similarity is in the last year of the cycle, there was a mid cycle crash….a BIG ole freaking bear trap. Which happened around the same time of year. Pulling out that cycles chart we can see that Bitcoin had a big run up. Just around 13 dollars at the beginning of 2013…which ran up to 230 dollars by April 9th 2013. Then that BEAR trap smacked the hopium right down to the ground, BTC crashed to around 66 bucks near 3 months later, in early July. The 6th to be exact. This was a crash and price drawdown of just over 71 percent! Now…let’s just take a look at what happened this year!
Bitcoin started the year just under 20k, and ran up to 64k….by….wait for it. April 13th 2021…just 4 days away from the peak in 2013 April 9th. And then like clockwork the big ole bear trapped smacke our hopium down once again. BTC crashed from $64k down to a low of $29,800. A crash and burn of just over 53 percent! When did this low happen? July 20th 2021, just 14 days away from the low in 2013, which was on July 6th. How convenient are those dates, and the drawdowns are pretty close…but some of you may be saying…but Tyler, that is still 18 percent away. 2013 crashed by 71 percent!. Well you need to realize that as time goes on…bitcoin gets less volatile.
Impending Parabolic Run
The time in between these 2 cycles, 2013 to 2021 is 8 years! Bitcoin isn’t going to pump as much, which is seen from the starting point in the Januarys to the April highs. 2013 BTC went from 13 dollar to 130 in between that time. A 17.6x…and then 2021 BTC went from about 20k to 64k…just a 3.2x Thus, a smaller crash into the last year of this cycle’s go around…just makes friggin telling sense. You know what else I’m friggin telling you!? We are about to go on another run…a parabolic one. Because the more things change…the more they stay the same…Expanding out the 2013 chart, we can see the price pushed up from that July 66 dollar low, and into early september Peaked near 130 dollars a pump of nearly 97 percent..but then by the end of the month there was a BIG event that happened that dropped it under 100 dollars…a crash of 23 percent! What was the reason for the crash!? There was a FUDstorm that hit the markets. The Silk Road…the online marketplace for buying droogas got seized by US government officials and officially went down. The markets panicked, as many believed that was the sole use case for Bitcoin and it had been nixed out…but everyone knows now, and they knew back then that isn’t the sole use case…
Comparing 2013 and 2021
Now pulling out this cycle, like clockwork, Bitcoin bounced from the July low of $29,800 to an early September peak once again, of about $51,800. A pump of nearly 74 percent. But the bearish September took over, and by the end a BIG crash once again which took the price down to about $40,000. A crash of about 22 percent…which once again took place at the end of the month. Although this time the crash was caused by China, coming in and banning Bitcoin once again….another FUD storm, just wrapped up in different paper. And once again, the fact that volatility is constricting showed it’s face…the pump and dump in 2013 was more than this cycle in 2021. Pump of 97 percent 2013. Pump of 74 percent in 2021. FUD Dump of 23 percent in 2013. FUD Dump of 21 percent in 2021.
October: The Month of Gains
Now, let’s just jump back to 2013… expand out that Bitcoin chart further…to the end October! What do you think happened!? Parabolic RUN, and that silk road dump was left right behind. By the end of the spooky month, Bitcoin pushed back to 200 dollars from the 100 dollar low. A 100 percent gain. 1xing in just a month. Now I’m sure you have heard of PLANB, the creator of the S2F model for Bitcoin which has been scarily accurate regarding the price. Well Mr. B tweeted his s2f model, and some monthly price predictions in June of this Year…He was correct with August 47k call, he was damn close with his September 43k call…well his October prediction is calling for bitcoin to hit 63k!! What would be the percentage increase from the September low if that happened. Well we hit around $40,000 in late September. To 63k that would be a pump of 57.5 percent. Sounds reasonable to me, especially since the pump in 2013 was 100 percent!
The Bullish October
Besides this year, I’m sure most of you have heard the news that October is usually very bullish for Bitcoin! That is true as out of the 8 years since 2013, BTC has been green 6 of those and already this year, we are starting out green! But if we took the averages of those 8 years, 2020 to 2013, it would be an average gain in October of 22.3 percent! If we followed this, Bitcoin would only reach 49000 by the end of the month! Although, this year is special…it can only be compared to 2 other years. 2013 and 2017…and if we took the average of just those 2 months, the percentage gain in October would be 54.3 percent! Putting us right near 63k, Plan B’s prediction…..
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Now there are other indicators too, more technical and not cyclical ones that point to 2013 being just like this year 2021. There is an indicator called the pi cycle top indicator, which is pretty dang spot on, calling Bitcoin tops. The indicator uses a 111-day moving average and a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average to predict market tops. When the 111-day moving average (orange) crosses above the 2×350-day moving average (green), it’s a signal that the top is in. And as we can see throughout bitcoin’s history….it’s been very reliable at calling the tops or being extremely near. Now, zooming…