The risk of nuclear war is increasing as Russia suffers losses in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons. Putin’s statements and actions indicate desperation, as he has mobilized inexperienced citizens and made veiled threats to use nuclear weapons. Leaders around the world, including US President Joe Biden and NATO’s Secretary General, have expressed concern. However, it’s important to distinguish between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Strategic weapons are deterrents and not likely to be used, while tactical weapons are battlefield-focused and more likely to be employed. Russia still possesses a significant number of tactical nuclear weapons, but their effectiveness in the Ukrainian conflict is limited.
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The Risk of Nuclear War
The risk of nuclear war is at its highest level since the end of the Cold War as Russian Battlefield losses in Ukraine mount. An increasingly desperate Vladimir Putin is threatening to use the most terrifying and taboo weapons in his arsenal. So, could Putin ever launch a nuclear attack?
Russian Losses in Ukraine
The Russians initially set their sights on taking Kiev, but they have now had to retreat and focus their attentions on other regions. With the massive support that Ukraine has been getting from NATO, Russia is losing ground. Putin has acknowledged these losses and has even implemented a partial mobilization plan, calling up thousands of Russian citizens with inadequate military training.
Putin’s Veiled Threats
As the situation for Russia worsens, Putin’s statements have become more bellicose. He has made veiled threats to use nuclear weapons, citing the U.S bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a justification. These statements have not been taken lightly by leaders around the world, with President Biden warning of an Armageddon if Putin uses nuclear weapons.
The Probability of Tactical Nuclear Weapon Use
According to some intelligence analysts, the probability of tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine has increased significantly since the beginning of the war. However, it’s important to understand the difference between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons.
Strategic vs Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Strategic nuclear weapons are large extinction level devices that can level cities and be launched from across the world on intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their main purpose is as a deterrent, ensuring that no one would use them due to the principle of mutually assured destruction.
Tactical nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are more useful in battlefield environments for countering overwhelming conventional forces. They have a smaller yield and are designed to be used on the battlefield or against military and civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Arsenal
While the U.S has been getting rid of its tactical nuclear weapons, Russia still possesses around 2,000 of these weapons. Experts believe they are held in storage facilities across the country. Russia’s reluctance to negotiate over its tactical nuclear arsenal has been one of the reasons for the breakdown of nuclear non-proliferation agreements.
Possible Scenarios of Nuclear Weapon Use
There are a few ways in which Putin could potentially use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He could carry out a test strike in the Black Sea to demonstrate Russia’s capabilities, but this would have little impact on the actual Battlefront. Another possibility is the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to help retake lost ground.
However, the efficacy of such a move would be limited due to the dispersed nature of Ukrainian troops. Smaller nuclear weapons would not inflict significant damage on the Ukrainian Army itself.
The Impact on the War and the World
If Putin were to launch a nuclear attack, the impact on the war and the entire world would be catastrophic. It could escalate the conflict in Ukraine, further isolate Russia, and lead to widespread destruction and loss of life.
In conclusion, while the risk of nuclear war is currently high, the likelihood of Putin launching a nuclear attack in Ukraine is uncertain. The use of tactical nuclear weapons may not provide the desired outcome for Russia and could have severe consequences. Nonetheless, the international community must work to de-escalate tensions and prevent any further escalation in the conflict.
