According to a cryptocurrency analyst, the cycle of the cryptocurrency market follows a pattern of a year and a half of bullishness followed by two and a half years of bearishness. This cycle is usually kicked off by a halving event, and Bitcoin typically reaches a new all-time high within a year of a halving event. However, this cycle has been influenced by macroeconomics this time around, and Bitcoin did not reach its expected all-time high because of the impact of macroeconomic factors. The analyst predicts that 2023 will be a bleak year for the financial and real worlds and warns of a potential bear market in 2024. There may be a window of opportunity for a market rally in late 2022 or early 2023.
—
Is 2022, 2023, and 2024 Going to Be Different?
The crypto market operates in cycles, with a year and a half of bullishness and two and a half years of bearishness. This cycle is often initiated by a halving event, which has happened three times so far. After the halving event, Bitcoin usually surpasses its previous all-time high within a year and hits a new all-time high between 50-75 weeks from that halving event.
However, the macroeconomic environment influenced the Bitcoin market cycle in 2020, which was different from the previous cycles. The Dixie, which is the pricing of the dollar, had a bull run for the first time ever, which prevented Bitcoin from hitting its 100K all-time high. This makes people wonder whether the bear market trend in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be different from the previous ones.
What to Expect in the Future
In 2013, it took a year for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high after the first halving. In 2016, it took 40 weeks for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high after the second halving, and 70 weeks after the third halving in 2020. Bitcoin’s all-time high in 2020 was 70,000 or 69,000, depending on the source.
2023 is predicted to be one of the worst years ever for the financial world, with rising costs of goods and commodities. Africa’s famine is predicted to worsen, making it unsustainable to send food to Africa using the current model. This year, several economists have warned about a possible recession, and some believe that a hurricane will hit all financial markets.
If a recession hits in 2023, there might be a window of opportunity to recover mid-way through the year. However, the best chance for recovery is in 2022. The Dixie is on a mega rally, and it needs to calm down before markets can rally again. Interest rates may also need to be curbed. Additionally, October to December is typically a period when markets rally.
Conclusion
The crypto market operates in cycles, and the macroeconomic environment has influenced Bitcoin’s cycle. In 2020, the cycle was different from the previous ones because of the Dixie’s bull run. While the market’s past cycles offer insight into its future, there’s no way to predict it with certainty. If the current pattern changes, there could still be many outcomes and opportunities.
