In BitBoy Crypto’s live stream, the Price Prediction Department discusses how to determine the price of a cryptocurrency using the equation price equals market cap divided by circulating supply. However, predicting prices can be difficult since circulating supply can change and some coins are inflationary and deflationary simultaneously. To accurately estimate prices, analysts need to examine tokenomics to determine circulating supply at the time of an all-time high, which is projected to occur in September to November 2025. While short-term trades have specific goals, long-term trades require written plans to avoid rash decision-making. To understand the market, analysts should also consider the BTC dominance chart, the DXY chart for the strength of the dollar, and the ES1! chart for the stock market.
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Introduction
What’s up everyone? My name is Ajwritescrypto. And welcome to the Price Prediction Department!
Background
Basically, the Price Prediction Department is a segment in the BitBoy Crypto live stream where BitBoy calls me on my red phone and I pick up the phone and we talk about a price prediction for a coin.
Moon Math
Basically, I’m not just, you know, giving out arbitrary numbers. Like, there is a method to the madness. There is a method to moon math. I want to give you a little peek behind the curtain to show you how I get to the numbers I get to So you can kind of follow along with my reasoning.
The Basic Equation
The basic equation for the price of a coin is very simple. The equation is price equals market cap divided by circulating supply. Therefore, if the circulating supply of a coin is 10 billion, It would require a $10 billion market cap as the numerator to equal $1 in price. Notice how I said circulating supply, not max supply.
Tokenomics
Circulating supply is how many coins are currently in circulation right now for whatever crypto you’re looking at. The max supply is how many coins that there will be total in circulation once a coin finishes its emission schedule. Doing moon math like this is super difficult sometimes.
Inflationary and Deflationary Coins
First of all, there are coins that already have a fixed supply And then there’s coins that aren’t going to reach their max supply in, say, 5 or 10 years. It’s also super difficult because some coins are inflationary and deflationary at the same time.
Estimating Circulating Supply
So say you’re looking at a coin that has a supply of 1 million right now But, in five years, the supply will be 5 million. That means that the market cap has to go up by 4 million more to have the same price it did when it was at 1 million if that makes sense. What I’m saying here is that you have to dive into the tokenomics of whatever project you’re looking at to estimate what the circulating supply is going to be by the time we reach our all-time high.
Predicting All-Time High
Our next all-time high based off the Bitcoin halving cycle Is projected to be September to November of 2025. The Bitcoin halving cycle has been spot on since its inception, and until that breaks narrative, we’re going to stick with it.
Short-Term vs Long-Term Trades
And, also, formulating a price prediction in crypto is one thing, But it’s another thing in practice, in action, once we get to that point. In crypto, you always have to be ready to pivot at any given moment. You have to be quick on your feet based off a lot of other factors.
Accountability
You really have to separate your long-term trades from your short-term trades. What I mean by that is you need to write down your trades and your plan for your trades before you click go, before you click buy. You need to have a plan and you need to stick to the plan.
Other Charts to Consider
Before I get into today’s price prediction, I also want to talk about a couple other charts that you should be looking at other than the chart you’re trading. The Bitcoin dominance chart, as in the percentage of Bitcoin compared to the entire market cap of crypto, right now, Bitcoin dominance is about 48.5%, and it’s fighting at a double top, and if it gets rejected from a double top, that could be good for the altcoins moving forward.
Strength of the Dollar
Also, the DXY chart is very important to look at as it indicates the strength of the dollar. When the strength of the dollar goes up, crypto goes down. And when the strength of the dollar goes down, crypto goes up.
Correlation with the Stock Market
My favorite chart to look at for other indications is the ES1! chart, which is the E-mini futures stock market chart. There is some argument between how correlated, you know, crypto and the stock market is, But it’s still worth looking at just for reference because a lot of times that the stock market falls off the face of the earth, crypto is going to follow it.
Final Thoughts
So there you go. Those are the overall things that I look at when I’m making a price prediction. We’re not just looking at the supply and the market cap, but we’re also looking at the utility for the coin. Do people care? How many people are on Twitter talking about this coin? How many partnerships do they have? Are these partnerships in the real world, like outside of the crypto atmosphere? When you mix that with the overall market sentiment, Bitcoin dominance, the stock market, the Total3 chart, everything else, You start to get a well rounded look at the one coin you’re looking at.
