Good Morning Crypto discusses the potential for the 2023 bull market to be “spicy” and set the stage for bigger events in 2024. The focus is on identifying the potential bottom and breaking significant resistance levels of 22.7 and 24. The potential for higher interest rates could lead to issues for governments, causing a pivot toward buying bonds to fund themselves. This could result in a risk-on environment in 2023, and the suggestion is that governments will opt to print rather than go bankrupt. The current sideways market has been described as “boring” and not indicative of an impending downturn.
The 2023 Bull Market Will Be “Spicy”
Foreign, what’s going on? We’re back and we’re right on time as always. Right on time, good to be back. We’re back with yet another episode of Good Morning Crypto, straight on time. Today we’re discussing very important things, namely we’ll be speaking about the bull market and why the 2023 bull market will be spicy.
The Beginning of a Warm-up Year
As you can see in the title, it will be very spicy, and this is only the beginning, by the way because at the end of the day, the bull market of last time when we did the Hobbing in 2020, it took basically a year for it to fully warm up. So, 2023, in my mind, will be one of this warm-up years that will set the stage for the bigger picture, for the bigger events later on in 2024.
Potential Bottom and Current Market Status
But the thing we have to look at right now is where potential bottom is because as you can see right now, for example, on the crypto markets, we do see a nice rebound in Bitcoin, five percent, is 12 BNB, five percent, Cardano 11. Let me know, by the way, in the chat if you love Cardano, if you really love Cardano, you say it in the chat right now.
I mean, the market is rebounding quite heavily but at the same time we still haven’t really reached any significant resistance levels. We haven’t smashed anything significant yet because when you go into the charts and you zoom out, you look on the bigger picture, you do see that for us to even take out this previous highs right here, it would need 22.7.
The Macro Perspective
We would have to go to 22.7 just to take out this high right here, and then we also have even more short term, let me rearrange here a bit: then we also have a bit more short-term highs that we’re trying to break right now which are exactly at, where we are right now basically 20.5 I guess. 20.5 is the big issue we’re dealing with right now on the daily.
We do have BSI turning into green, but as you can see, it is a lot of sideways right now when you do have the sideways chop; the BSI is not as strong on the daily and smaller time frame so that’s why you gotta zoom out. You gotta zoom out and you gotta look at something like weekly and on the weekly, for us to go to a bullish trend on the BSI, we would need approximately 24.
The Current Situation
All in all, as you can see, we have a bit of clarity in the important metrics when it comes to the short term. If we can just hold 20.5, already we’re starting to get out of this situation which is this very, very boring sideways move. We’ll head for already half a year almost and this really shows how long bear markets can be, in terms of boring you out. It’s not that it always falls. Sometimes it just doesn’t do anything for six months. It’s just sideways.
So now we’re having a situation which is like this. We’re sideways for like six months. Most people in this space, most people in the space, they expect lower. They expect something like 10K. They expect the repetition of what happened in 2018 where it dropped basically from 6K to 3K. You do see a lot of people right now today drawing the similarity of what we’re seeing right now here and of course what we saw in 2018 and everyone is pointing in this direction.
The Macro Perspective Continued
Look, it’s so similar: sideways here, sideways here. Here we dumped heavily, basically 50%, and here we still haven’t. While most people are looking at this, we also gotta understand that it’s a bigger situation right now. It’s way bigger situation in regards to the macro, in regards to the central banks because we are seeing an important shift that is going to happen sooner or later.
As you know with increased interest rates, a lot of things start to break. It’s not just that your mortgage is more expensive, you do see a lot of issues with governments. We have a sovereign debt crisis overall where it’s not the banking system, it is not the housing market, but it is the government. You see, look at the Bank of Japan and what they’re trying to do because Japanese Yen just lost 30% against the dollar very quickly in a second, basically.
Currencies around the world cannot really handle the current situation with higher interest rates. When the Fed goes and increases them all the time, the Bank of England already had to pivot at some point, Fed will have to do the same. The economies are not made for high interest environment, things literally start to break, and as you know, governments will never go bankrupt. They have the option of QE or going bankrupt or facing a situation where their own national debt and their own responsibilities that they have to pay are getting more and more expensive as we are seeing the interest rates go up everywhere.
Imagine if it is the case that the bond market continues to suffer where they have to increase the interest rate in order to attract investors so that someone buys the bonds and funds the governments. It’s a very difficult situation right now, so at some point the government will have to step in and start buying bonds because there is not a lot of liquidity right now in bonds. You’re seeing this; you’re seeing this happen in real-time, and this is also, of course, affecting the US heavily.
The Big Question
But when you have a problem in the bond market, it means that the government can literally not fund themselves. They fund themselves by selling bonds, and when the interest rate in the bond market is also decreasing, it means that there’s not a lot of demand for bonds, so they have to increase the interest rate to make them more appealing. So at some point, they will have to go and stimulate like they always do, help the bond market.
This is going to be a very important piece of news and a pivot to look at, alright? Because at the end of the day, it is all about when we will see a pivot. We know that the current trend sector cannot continue forever. Things literally are breaking, but the big question is when do they pivot? When do they start to intervene in the markets because the markets are not really made for this?
Conclusion: Bitcoin on the Rise
This is the number one important thing to realize that the reason why 2023 may be a very hot and spicy risk-on environment is because this is a game of chicken right now with higher interest rates and basically the Fed and central banks around the world not intervening in the bond markets. It’s a game of chicken at the end of the day. Something’s gotta happen either the government will face big problems just funding itself like we just mentioned or they will have to step in and start printing. It’s either or, and nothing is good. I mean none of these options are good, but what is better, going bankrupt or starting to print? You know the answer.
At the end of the day, the government can never go bankrupt because they can always print, and that is why when you look at Plan B, he said this yesterday: “Look, one day you wake up and you will see Bitcoin at 21K and you will not understand why.” And maybe it is already tomorrow. We are at 20.2 right now, so Bitcoin markets are heating up; they are getting more exciting than a day ago, but at the same time, how much excitement can you get?